China, once the powerhouse of global growth, is now grappling with an economic slowdown that has sent shockwaves through international circles. What was once a bulwark against global economic weakness has now become a cause for alarm. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has plummeted, officially entering bear market territory, and the Chinese yuan has hit its lowest point in 16 years. The previously robust growth, fueled by the lifting of Covid-19 lockdowns, has faltered. Consumer prices are dipping, the real estate sector is in turmoil, and exports are declining. The youth unemployment crisis has even led to the government withholding data.
Adding to these challenges, a major homebuilder and a significant investment company have defaulted on payments, igniting fears that the housing market crisis could catalyze financial instability. The absence of effective measures to stimulate domestic demand, coupled with concerns of contagion, has led to a string of growth downgrades. Prominent investment banks are revising China’s economic growth forecasts to below 5%.
This bleak scenario casts a shadow on China’s official growth target of around 5.5%, placing the country’s leadership in a difficult position. This marks a stark contrast to China’s role in the 2008 global financial crisis, when it initiated the world’s largest stimulus package and emerged as a leading economy. It’s also a departure from the initial days of the Covid-19 pandemic, during which China skillfully evaded recession when other major developed economies were not as fortunate. What’s behind this unexpected turn?
A Property Predicament
China’s economy started the year strongly after the initial Covid-19 lockdowns, but the momentum fizzled out by April. This decline has intensified due to defaults by key players in the real estate sector. Defaults by Country Garden, a once-leading property developer, and Zhongrong Trust, a top trust company, have raised alarm bells. These incidents have reignited concerns about China’s economy, following the precedent set by Evergrande’s debt defaults in 2021.
Although Beijing has implemented supportive measures to revive the real estate market, even major players are now on the verge of default. This underscores the challenges China faces in containing the crisis. The problems in the property sector have also spread to the $2.9 trillion investment trust industry, as seen in the case of Zhongrong Trust’s repayment failures.
Local Government Debt
Looms Local government debt is another pressing concern. The sharp drop in land sale revenues due to the property slump and the ongoing financial impact of Covid-19 lockdowns have driven a surge in local government debt. This not only threatens Chinese banks but also constrains the government’s capacity to foster growth and expand public services. Beijing’s efforts to stimulate the economy have so far consisted of incremental measures like interest rate cuts and support for consumer businesses and the property market.
However, China’s current debt situation prevents it from employing the kind of massive stimulus it used during the global financial crisis in 2008. The economy is still grappling with the repercussions of that period, which saw an explosion in local government debt and credit expansion. Policymakers are wary of exacerbating this debt burden.
Long-Term Challenges
China faces demographic challenges, strained international relations, and long-term structural issues. The nation’s fertility rate has hit record lows, leading to a shrinking population. Aging demographics could strain economic growth potential and increase fiscal deficits. The decline in the labor force could lead to higher interest rates and reduced investment.
China’s trajectory seems to indicate a substantial reduction in trend growth since the pandemic’s onset. The current situation suggests that China’s role in the global economy is undergoing a significant shift, one that necessitates a fresh approach to navigate the complex challenges ahead.
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